4 November 2026: US government bond yields moved higher on Tuesday as Americans voted in the midterm elections, with investors also weighing strong labour market data, oil price swings and the growing chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
Key points:
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.92%–4.95% during Tuesday’s session, close to the 5% level.
- The 30-year yield traded around 5.3%, and the 2-year yield near 4.62%.
- US job openings rose sharply in September while layoffs fell, pointing to a firm labour market.
- Markets are watching the Fed’s 8–9 December meeting, where another hike is seen as possible.
Yields rise as the labour market stays firm
Bond prices fell and yields rose after data showed US job openings increased sharply in September while layoffs declined. A strong jobs market gives the Federal Reserve more room to keep tightening policy, which tends to push yields higher. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for mortgages and corporate borrowing costs worldwide, gained several basis points during the session, according to CNBC and other market reports.
| Maturity | Approximate yield (3 Nov, intraday) |
| 2-year | ~4.62% |
| 10-year | ~4.92%–4.95% |
| 30-year | ~5.29%–5.32% |
Figures varied slightly between sources during the session and are approximate.
Inflation and the Fed keep pressure on bonds
The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September and held in October, with two policymakers voting for another increase. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose to 3.1% year on year in September, well above the 2% target. Read our explainer: The Fed is raising rates again in 2026: what it means for traders.
What the midterms could mean for Treasuries
Strategists expected the election to cause short-term volatility rather than a lasting change in bond prices. Nuveen’s Laura Cooper said a divided government could even help longer-dated bonds by limiting new fiscal spending, although it would not solve the US deficit. Voting was still under way and no results had been declared at the time of writing.
What it means for investors and traders
- Bond investors: yields near 5% offer higher income than in recent years, but bond prices can still fall if yields keep rising.
- Forex traders: higher US yields can support the dollar, particularly against currencies whose central banks are on hold.
- Gold: rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which has fallen to its lowest level of 2026. See why gold has fallen.
- Key events ahead: election results, upcoming inflation data and the December Fed meeting.
Risk warning: Trading forex, CFDs and other leveraged products carries a high level of risk, and you could lose money rapidly. Market figures in this article are based on reports available at the time of writing and may change. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
Sources
- CNBC: Treasury yields rise as investors weigh midterm vote, jobs data and Iran tensions
- Trading Economics: Treasury yield edges higher ahead of midterm results
- MarketScreener: US Treasury yields rise as markets await midterm results
- Kitco: Gold gains, silver slips as US midterms unsettle markets