After last week’s central bank super-week, currency traders face another packed calendar. The US midterm elections, the October nonfarm payrolls report, and expected rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England could all drive big moves in the days ahead.
Day-by-day calendar
- Monday, Nov 2: US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Apple and Palantir report earnings after the close.
- Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections; RBA rate decision; AMD earnings.
- Wednesday, Nov 4: US ISM Services and ADP employment; eurozone flash October inflation; New Zealand Q3 employment; Qualcomm earnings.
- Thursday, Nov 5: Bank of England rate decision.
- Friday, Nov 6: US nonfarm payrolls; Canada employment report.
US midterm elections (Tuesday)
Polls suggest Democrats are favoured to win the House, while the Senate looks like a close call. A divided Congress usually means less fiscal policy change, which markets often treat as neutral. A surprise result, however, could move the dollar, Treasury yields and stock indices, particularly if it changes expectations for government spending and borrowing.
RBA: a second hike likely (Tuesday)
Markets price around an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The RBA already raised rates on September 29, and inflation has moved further from its 2–3% target: September CPI rose to 4.3% year-on-year and the trimmed mean to 3.6%. AUD/USD is trading just below 0.7050. A hike with hawkish guidance could push the Aussie higher; a hold would be a major surprise and likely trigger a sharp drop.
BoE: first hike since 2023 expected (Thursday)
A 25 basis point hike is fully priced in, which would be the Bank of England’s first rate increase since August 2023. UK inflation stood at 3.5% in September, well above the 2% target, and three policymakers already voted for a hike in September. With the move expected, GBP/USD (near 1.3400) will react mainly to the vote split and guidance on further hikes.
Nonfarm payrolls (Friday)
This is the week’s biggest event for the dollar. The previous report showed just 29,000 jobs added in September, far below the 90,000 forecast and down from 133,000 in August. Markets price about an 80% chance of a Fed hike in December, so:
- A strong report could cement December hike expectations and lift the dollar.
- Another weak report could cut hike bets sharply, weigh on the dollar and support gold and the yen.
Trading tips for the week
- Expect wider spreads around the RBA (Tuesday morning in Asia), BoE (Thursday midday in London) and NFP (Friday, 8:30 am New York).
- Election results may arrive overnight; be cautious about holding large positions into Wednesday’s open.
- Keep position sizes small and use stop-losses; event weeks often produce false breakouts.
Bottom line: Two expected hikes, a pivotal jobs report and a US election make this one of the most event-heavy weeks of the quarter. The US dollar, Australian dollar and British pound are the currencies most likely to see big moves.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Market levels quoted are approximate at the time of writing.