4 November 2026: Democrats have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 US midterm elections, according to projections by NBC News, with CNN and CNBC reporting the same outcome. Markets reacted quickly: US stock futures fell, led by technology shares, the dollar weakened and Treasury yields dipped in early Asian trading on Wednesday.
Key points:
- NBC News projects Democrats win control of the House, estimating a majority of around 255 seats.
- NBC News also projects Democrats win the Senate, with a net gain of six seats so far and several races still uncalled.
- S&P 500 futures fell about 1.2% and Nasdaq futures more than 2% in early trading, as investors weighed tougher scrutiny of AI and Big Tech.
- The US dollar index slipped about 0.4% to 101.34, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 6 basis points to about 4.91%.
- With President Trump in the White House, the result means a divided government for the next two years.
Who won the House and Senate
House: NBC News projected that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives, flipping a series of key battleground districts, including some that President Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024. The NBC News Decision Desk estimates Democrats will end up with around 255 seats, well above the 218 needed for a majority. CNN also projected a Democratic House.
Senate: NBC News projected that Democrats win control of the Senate, which Republicans had held 53–47. As of 11:38 pm Eastern time, NBC showed Democrats with a net gain of six seats, with around 10 races, including Maine, Michigan and Alaska, still not called. Final seat totals may change as counting continues.
Before the vote, prediction markets and JPMorgan had seen a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome, but the size of the House gains appears larger than many expected. Read our pre-election piece: what history says about stocks after midterms.
How markets reacted
Early reaction came in Asian trading hours on Wednesday, before Wall Street opened. Figures below were reported by Reuters around 04:00–04:10 GMT and are approximate.
| Market | Early move (4 Nov, Asian session) |
| S&P 500 futures | About −1.2% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | About −2.2% |
| Dow futures | About −0.8% |
| US dollar index | −0.4% to 101.34 |
| EUR/USD | +0.5% to about 1.1249 |
| GBP/USD | +0.4% to about 1.3464 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | Down about 6 bp to ~4.91% |
| Gold | Slightly higher, near $3,950 |
| Japan Nikkei 225 | About −3% |
Why markets moved
- AI and Big Tech regulation: investors worry that a Democratic Congress could bring tighter rules on artificial intelligence and large tech companies, which is why Nasdaq futures fell more than the wider market. Strong AMD earnings were largely ignored.
- Data-centre buildout: some analysts flagged the risk of state-level limits on new data centres, which could slow AI infrastructure spending.
- Less fiscal stimulus: a divided government is expected to make large new spending or tax plans harder to pass. That helped push Treasury yields lower.
- A weaker dollar: lower yields and political uncertainty weighed on the dollar, lifting the euro and sterling.
The early drop in S&P 500 futures, about 1.2%, was larger than the roughly 0.5% move JPMorgan had expected in a Democratic sweep scenario before the vote.
What analysts are saying
- Charu Chanana, Saxo: markets are pricing in weaker fiscal stimulus and tougher scrutiny of AI and Big Tech, but lower Treasury yields could eventually offset the initial sell-off.
- Michael Arone, State Street Global Advisors: the bigger risk for markets is investors overreacting to the result, rather than the result itself.
- Mark Malek, Siebert Financial: much of the outcome was already priced in, and he expects a short burst of volatility rather than an extreme move.
- Tai Hui, J.P. Morgan Asset Management: the President keeps veto power and executive tools such as trade policy, and a divided government could help limit deficits. He sees the AI sell-off as more important for markets than politics.
- Jesper Koll, Monex Group: expects the dollar to strengthen over time as the Federal Reserve’s independence looks more credible.
What it means for traders and investors
- Volatility: expect larger swings and wider spreads as more races are called and Wall Street opens. Use smaller positions and stop-losses. See our risk management checklist.
- Tech stocks: AI and Big Tech shares are likely to stay sensitive to any talk of new regulation.
- US dollar and yields: lower yields have weighed on the dollar in the short term, but the Fed’s path still matters more. Read the Fed is raising rates again in 2026 and Treasury yields edge toward 5%.
- Gold: a softer dollar and lower yields have given gold a small lift after its fall to a 2026 low. See why gold has fallen this year.
- Long-term investors: history shows the S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, but past performance is not a guide to future returns.
What to watch next
- The Wall Street open and closing levels on Wednesday, 4 November.
- The remaining uncalled Senate and House races.
- US inflation data and Federal Reserve comments ahead of the 8–9 December Fed meeting.
- Any statements on AI, tech regulation or spending plans from congressional leaders.
This article will be updated with the full Wall Street reaction after Wednesday’s session.
Risk warning: Trading forex, CFDs and other leveraged products carries a high level of risk, and you could lose money rapidly. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Election projections and market figures in this article are based on reports available at the time of writing and may change. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
Sources
- NBC News: 2026 House results
- NBC News: 2026 Senate results
- CNBC: Democrats flip Senate after winning House
- CNN: Midterm election live updates
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Stocks wilt, dollar slides as early midterm results point to blue sweep
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Market analysts react to US midterm election results